*A Hundred Zeros*

/To the Editor:/

While I agree that there are many reasons to be bearish on Google, I
don't believe the ones you cite are to be taken seriously. In fact, I am
surprised to see you cite them, since they reflect a shocking lack of
faith in markets. If I advertise on Google, I will pay them in total no
more than the customers brought to me by Google are worth. If I used to
pay $5 per click, and fraud leads to 50% of the clicks being spurious,
so that now instead of 1 click in 10 leading to a sale, it takes 20
clicks to accomplish the same, I will now pay $2.50 per click.

Click Truth is not a threat, just the opposite. In fact, Google's
selling proposition is based largely on being better able to match
sellers with interested buyers. The better they can do that, the more
money they can make.

Suppose I am the publisher of a magazine, which for some reason appeals
to teenagers and corporate tycoons. /Barron's/ might be interested in
advertising in it, but would care only about the tycoon readers. If I
publish two editions that differ just in advertising, one going to the
teenagers and the other to the tycoons, wouldn't you pay me just as much
if your ad were placed just in the tycoon edition, even though only half
as many eyeballs would have a chance to see it? Perhaps you would pay a
bit more, since there would be only half as many ads in each copy, so
your ad would stand out more.

Andrew Odlyzko
University of Minnesota
Minneapolis