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Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies (MINTS)

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MINTS pages updated, RSS feed available

The MINTS pages have been updated to present analysis of traffic data for the first half of 2008. In spite of all the hype, there is no sign of a jump in growth rates, they continue at the 50-60% annual rate that has prevailed over the last couple of years.

Although the statistical analyses of MINTS are updated sporadically, the Data pages do have links to the live traffic statistics pages that are the main sources of MINTS inputs. Thus visitors to MINTS can always get an updated picture by looking at the raw data.

As usual, growth rates are scattered all over. There are certainly some signs of a substantial slowdown in growth rates. For example, this is visible at the Amsterdam Internet Exchange, AMS-IX, which currently has the highest level of traffic among all the world's public exchanges. But this may reflect shifts in traffic inside Europe, as Deutsche Commercial Internet Exchange (DE-CIX) in Frankfurt shows continuing growth of about 100% per year.

Hong Kong, one of the two world leaders in traffic density on a per-capita basis (the other is South Korea) suffered from a further decline in its traffic growth. While growth from mid-2006 to mid-2007 was about 26%, over the next year growth came to only 6%, see Hong Kong and Australia traffic.

One should also note that growth tends to be slower in the first half of each year, and then speed up in the fall. Overall, though, there is not a single sign of an unmanageable flood of traffic. If anything, a slowdown is visible more than a speedup. This suggests that the industry might benefit from shifting its emphasis towards methods of stimulating traffic growth. See, for example, "Threats to the Internet: Too much or too little growth?".

Finally, an RSS feed is available for MINTS news items. The expectation is that such items will be added relatively infrequently, as information becomes available from various outside sources, and as substantial modifications or updates are made on the MINTS page.